More reading..

The only book I’m reading now is The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe.  Its premise is that roughly every 21-24 years there is a ‘Turning’ and that there are 4 turnings in a cycle.

The turnings are: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.  The most recent cycle began with the Post-War period 1946-1964 (High), the Consciousness Revolution 1964-1984 (Awakening), the Culture Wars 1984-2005? (Unraveling) and the coming/current Millennial Crisis 2005?-2026? (Crisis).  The question marks are theirs.  I might suggest 2007 as the beginning of the Crisis, but one could argue that the invasion and occupation of Iraq was the true start in 2003.

Interestingly, the book was written in 1997, so the Unraveling was halfway through at the time of the writing.  Still, the predictions they made regarding the immediate future and beyond — 1997 and on — are amazingly on point.

They outline why wars started in an Unraveling are never successful, but those started in Crises are either overwhelming victories (World War II) or overwhelming defeats.

There are other parallels, but you’ll need all the details.  It’s written by two scholars, one is a professor of history and economics, so it’s a little repetitive at times.  Still, it’s worth the time.

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